Scroll through social media for five minutes and you’ll find someone promising that if you just believe hard enough, the promotion, the relationship, the house, or the dream client will show up. Write it down. Visualize it. Put it on a vision board. Let the universe handle the rest.
I understand the appeal. Believing something good is possible does matter. It’s where every meaningful change starts. But a positive mindset isn’t “the secret.” It’s step one. And the research on this is surprisingly clear: if we stop at step one, we may actually be less likely to get where we want to go.
When dreaming drains you
Psychologist Gabriele Oettingen has spent decades studying what happens when people fantasize about the future. In one set of experiments, she and Heather Barry Kappes found that people induced to have positive fantasies showed less energy than people who questioned the desired future, imagined negatively, or imagined neutrally.
Their explanation is fascinating: positive fantasies trigger the kind of relaxation that normally follows real achievement, instead of mobilizing the energy needed to get there. In other words, your brain gets a small taste of the win before you’ve done anything to earn it.
The effect showed up in real life, too. In related work, more positive fantasies predicted less success in starting a romantic relationship and lower grades on an upcoming exam.
This doesn’t mean optimism is bad. The distinction that matters is between fantasizing and expecting. Oettingen’s work found that believing your goal is achievable can motivate more effort, while simply fantasizing about the goal was linked to less effort and worse outcomes. Confidence fuels action. Daydreaming can replace it.
Picture the path, not just the finish line
A classic UCLA study makes this concrete. Before a midterm, some students spent a few minutes each day imagining themselves getting a great grade. Others imagined themselves studying: where, when, and how.
The students who rehearsed the process started studying earlier, studied more hours, and gained several points on their exam scores. The students who pictured the outcome mostly didn’t benefit, and they studied fewer hours. The researchers found that the process group’s advantage came through better planning and lower anxiety.
That last piece is worth pausing on for the leaders I work with. Planning the steps doesn’t just help you perform. It calms you down. (That connection to steadiness under pressure is my own inference, not something the study measured directly, but it’s what I see in coaching every week.)
From intention to action
We all know the gap between “I’m going to” and “I did.” Research on that gap suggests 47% of people who form positive intentions don’t follow through.
One of the best-tested tools for closing it is the if-then plan, what psychologists call an implementation intention: If it’s 7:30 a.m. on Monday, then I’ll block 30 minutes to draft that proposal. Across 94 independent tests, these plans had a medium-to-large positive effect on reaching goals.
Oettingen combined her research with this planning tool into a method called WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan). You start with the positive vision, which is the part manifesting gets right. Then you honestly name what’s in your way, and you make an if-then plan for it.
A 2021 meta-analysis of 21 studies and 15,907 participants found this combined approach helped people reach their goals, with a small-to-medium effect. Interestingly, it worked better when people went through it with another person than when they worked from written materials alone. (My hypothesis: that’s a strong argument for walking through it with a coach, colleague, or accountability partner rather than doing it solo.)
So, is manifesting wrong?
Not entirely. Getting clear on what you want and believing it’s possible are real and necessary first steps. Where the message goes off track is the promise that belief alone does the work. The evidence says the opposite: the vision gets you started, and the obstacles, the plan, and the Tuesday-morning follow-through get you there. Own the manifestation by speaking it, put the plan in place to get there, and then take action.
Love,
Certified Professional Coach and Psychologist
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How often have you wished for that person in your life who listens deeply, doesn’t judge you, and doesn’t try to fix you? That person who holds space for you to talk through your struggles, your hopes, and dreams so that you can live the personal and professional life that you truly want? I’m that person. Yes, I’m a psychologist and a professional life and leadership coach but my superpower is listening, deep, empathic, compassionate listening. If you’ve been seeking a professional listener who will help you live the life you truly desire, let’s set up a time to talk. My email is Lisa@LisaKaplin.com